In the recently leaked documents, Phil Spencer of Xbox explained his thoughts on the projection of Xbox Game Pass performance until 2030.

In a chart showing estimated growth, users were split between “PC First”, “Cloud”, and of course “Console First + Multi-Device”.

When asked about these projections, Spencer reportedly admitted that the company would need to see more growth among “PC First” and “Cloud” customers. If the company didn’t see growth in those fields, Spencer says the company would reconsider its role in gaming:

“I do not believe that that is what the future Xbox business would look like. This is a presentation from our devices organization to the gaming leadership team, so this is the view from the team that is chartered with building our hardware on what the future business would look like.

I can fairly safely say that if we do not make more progress than this off of console, we would exit the gaming business. If this were the outcome, we would — I don’t believe we’d still be in the business.

A majority of our customers are found off of our own hardware, I would hope by earlier than 2030. So, when you asked me if I agreed with this chart that the light green and blue depending on what colors you see there would have to be much larger much earlier. I would say by FY26, ’27 that we should be in that position, or we’d have to make a different decision with the business.”

This information puts some decisions of Xbox into context, such as their recent ad which promoted Xbox Game Pass compared to physical media.

The recent Microsoft leaks are a result of the recent FTC v. Microsoft case. A recent “redacted” file erroneously contained unredacted attachments to confidential information regarding the operation of Microsoft and Xbox.