Microsoft originally had a low estimate for the price of getting Baldur’s Gate 3 on Xbox Game Pass.
According to documents from the recent FTC v. Microsoft leak, Microsoft called Baldur’s Gate 3 a “second-run Stadia PC RPG”, which means they anticipated it would release on Stadia first. This may have informed Microsoft’s initial estimate.
Twitter user @SYACVG pointed out that the $5 million USD estimate for Baldur’s Gate 3 on Xbox Game Pass was “fairly low”. Other games like Star Wars: Jedi Survivor were reportedly estimated at over $300 million.
Both the scope and consumer response to Baldur’s Gate 3 were unprecedented. The Director of Publishing at Larian Studios himself referred to anticipating consumer response as “giant spooky leaps.”
It’s unknown at the time if Microsoft’s estimate for Baldur’s Gate 3 has changed in the wake of its surprising success.