For years now, Steam wishlists have basically become the universal “success number” for indie games. The bigger the wishlist count, the bigger the launch is supposed to be. Simple, right? Get enough people interested, stack up those numbers, and eventually the sales will follow. Well… maybe not.
A new analysis shared by GameDiscoverCo is challenging the idea that wishlist totals alone are a reliable way to predict how successful a game will actually be after launch. According to the data, the relationship between Steam wishlists and first-week sales is far messier than many developers want to believe.
The core issue is conversion. Traditionally, a lot of developers estimate launch sales by comparing their wishlist totals against average conversion rates from other Steam releases.
However, GameDiscoverCo argues that this method is “near-fatally flawed” because actual results vary wildly between games. In some cases, titles with similar wishlist numbers can perform 10 to 20 times differently from one another.
Instead, one metric that is getting more attention is the “follower-to-wishlist multiplier.” On Steam, wishlists are easy to click and often happen casually after seeing a trailer or short-form video. Followers, meanwhile, usually represent players who are actively interested enough to keep up with updates and news around the game.
Source: GameDiscoverCo Newsletter
According to the report, games with lower follower-to-wishlist multipliers tend to convert better into actual sales because those audiences are more invested. Meanwhile, games with extremely high wishlist numbers but relatively low follower counts may have attracted a broader, more casual audience that never intended to buy immediately.
One example highlighted was Subnautica 2, which reportedly sits below the median multiplier with around 5 million wishlists and 352,000 followers. On the other hand, Outbound launched with around 1.6 million wishlists but only 64,000 followers, giving it a much higher multiplier and potentially weaker conversion potential.
Outbound itself has become part of the broader discussion around this topic. Despite generating massive social media reach and wishlist momentum before release, the game launched to mixed Steam reviews and lower-than-expected player engagement metrics.
That combination may significantly affect long-term sales performance, especially because Steam user reviews can heavily influence visibility and purchasing decisions over time.
The analysis also points out that there are simply too many variables for wishlist numbers to tell the full story. Pricing matters. Review scores matter. Demo engagement matters. Organic influencer interest matters. Even something as simple as whether players repeatedly come back to a demo can be more valuable than raw wishlist totals.
Source: GameDiscoverCo Newsletter
Community activity is another major factor. Developers are increasingly paying attention to Discord engagement, Steam forum traffic, repeat demo players, and organic social media discussion instead of just focusing on “number go up” marketing strategies.
A game going viral on TikTok for a few days may generate huge wishlist spikes from casual viewers, but that does not necessarily mean those same people are ready to spend $20 or $30 at launch. Some players may simply like the idea or aesthetic of a game without feeling strongly committed to actually buying it.
The biggest takeaway from all of this is probably that Steam success is becoming harder to reduce to a single number. Wishlists still matter, obviously, but more developers are realizing they are only one piece of a much larger puzzle.
